Texas Southern

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	222.0
Current RPI:	222
Expected SOS:	293
Current SOS:	293
Current Record:	15-19
Expected Record:	15-19
Current Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-6
Current OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC RPI:	236
Expected OOC SOS:	2

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-19	222.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	97-69	L	0%
11-12	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	86-84	L	0%
11-16	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	A	82-64	L	0%
11-18	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	80-67	L	0%
11-21	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	114-71	L	0%
11-24	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	A	84-77	L	0%
11-30	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	97-87	L	0%
12-2	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	71-69	L	0%
12-11	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	74-68	L	0%
12-14	Baylor (68.0)	B12	A	99-68	L	0%
12-16	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	72-66	L	0%
12-18	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	91-72	L	0%
12-23	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	73-52	L	0%
1-1	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	78-66	W	100%
1-3	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	85-70	W	100%
1-6	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	100-94	W	100%
1-13	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	A	85-80	L	0%
1-15	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	79-78	L	0%
1-20	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	91-77	W	100%
1-22	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	72-74	L	0%
1-27	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	56-58	W	100%
1-29	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	82-97	W	100%
2-3	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	96-82	L	0%
2-10	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	86-75	W	100%
2-12	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	55-78	L	0%
2-17	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	A	71-72	W	100%
2-19	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	62-61	L	0%
2-24	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	106-71	W	100%
2-26	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	95-77	W	100%
3-1	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	88-90	W	100%
3-3	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	71-78	W	100%
3-6	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	90-76	W	100%
3-9	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	N	74-88	W	100%
3-10	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	N	69-84	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Southern	SWAC	26.48	26.48	51.49	51.49	0.79	0.79
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	5.36	5.36	37.50	37.50	-1.34	-1.34
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	5.34	5.34	46.67	46.67	-0.36	-0.36
Alabama St.	SWAC	5.28	5.28	28.57	28.57	-2.26	-2.26
Southern	SWAC	3.97	3.97	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	3.92	3.92	13.33	13.33	-2.87	-2.87
Alcorn St.	SWAC	3.91	3.91	26.92	26.92	-1.81	-1.81
Jackson St.	SWAC	3.90	3.90	32.14	32.14	-1.39	-1.39
Alabama A&M	SWAC	3.83	3.83	10.34	10.34	-3.04	-3.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	3.83	3.83	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	1.68	1.68	63.64	63.64	0.46	0.46
Baylor	B12	1.66	1.66	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Kansas	B12	1.63	1.63	78.79	78.79	0.94	0.94
Toledo	MAC	1.59	1.59	65.62	65.62	0.50	0.50
BYU	WCC	1.58	1.58	69.70	69.70	0.62	0.62
TCU	B12	1.56	1.56	64.52	64.52	0.45	0.45
Syracuse	ACC	1.56	1.56	59.38	59.38	0.29	0.29
Gonzaga	WCC	1.56	1.56	87.88	87.88	1.18	1.18
Oakland	Horz	1.54	1.54	56.25	56.25	0.19	0.19
Washington St.	P12	1.54	1.54	36.67	36.67	-0.41	-0.41
Clemson	ACC	1.52	1.52	70.97	70.97	0.64	0.64
Ohio St.	B10	1.52	1.52	74.19	74.19	0.73	0.73
Wyoming	MWC	1.47	1.47	58.06	58.06	0.24	0.24
Utah	P12	0.23	0.23	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.21	0.21	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.20	0.20	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.18	0.18	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
UNLV	MWC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Fresno St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
IUPUI	Horz	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	93.94	93.94	0.08	0.08
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.04	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.04	0.04	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.04	0.04	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.04	0.04	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.04	0.04	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.04	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.04	0.04	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02